In order to keep myself optimistic and encouraged, I frequently read this quote to myself:
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Here's what I tell my students on the first day when I teach one of my creative writing courses:
You will be published if you possess three qualities- talent, passion, and discipline.
You will probably be published if you possess two of the three qualities in either combination - either talent and discipline, or passion and discipline.
You will likely be published if you possess neither talent nor passion but still have discipline. Just go to the bookstore and pick up a few "notable" titles and you'll see what I mean.
But if all you possess is talent or passion, if all you possess is talent and passion, you will not be published. The likelihood is you will never be published. And if by some miracle you are published, it will probably never happen again.
Since I have both passion and discipline, I feel most optimistic. :) Talent? Time will tell that. :)